Model validationas-of-match · no look-ahead · vs 1/2 uniform
As-of-match logistic win forecasts scored against the 1/2 uniform baseline. Ratings are frozen at the eve of each match; lower is better for all three scores.
T20
ODI
T20 cricket: PASS — beats uniform on all three scores over 40 matches (Brier 0.492 vs 0.500; RPS 0.246 vs 0.250; log-loss 0.685 vs 0.693).
| Score | Model | Uniform | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brier | 0.492 | 0.500 | 1.6% |
| RPS | 0.246 | 0.250 | 1.6% |
| Log-loss | 0.685 | 0.693 | 1.2% |
Scope: T20 cricket · 40 matches. Also runnable from the CLI: dotnet run --project src/Ohms.Cricket.Ingest -- backtest-cricket t20.