India v South Africa
T20WC26 · Match 21 · Melbourne Cricket Ground (Pace) · T20 ·
Sunday 15 February 2026, 09:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
315
Most likely band
285–294
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
255
265
275
285
295
305
315
325
335
345
355
365
375
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.