Sydney Thunder v Melbourne Stars
BBL · Match 43 · Sydney Cricket Ground (Spin) · T20 ·
Saturday 23 January 2027, 16:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
310
Most likely band
280–289
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.