Melbourne Stars v Melbourne RenegadesMS won by 30 runs
BBL · Match 35 · Melbourne Cricket Ground (Pace) · T20 ·
Friday 15 January 2027, 16:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
316
Most likely band
286–295
Result
153 / 123
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
256
266
276
286
296
306
316
326
336
346
356
366
376
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.