Melbourne Renegades v Sydney ThunderST won by 5 wickets
BBL · Match 27 · Melbourne Cricket Ground (Pace) · T20 ·
Thursday 07 January 2027, 08:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
317
Most likely band
287–296
Result
170 / 171
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
257
267
277
287
297
307
317
327
337
347
357
367
377
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.