Melbourne Stars v Adelaide StrikersMS won by 5 runs
BBL · Match 26 · Melbourne Cricket Ground (Pace) · T20 ·
Thursday 07 January 2027, 08:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
318
Most likely band
288–297
Result
179 / 174
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
258
268
278
288
298
308
318
328
338
348
358
368
378
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.