Perth Scorchers v Melbourne StarsPS won by 23 runs
BBL · Match 18 · Optus Stadium (Pace) · T20 ·
Wednesday 30 December 2026, 08:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
323
Most likely band
293–302
Result
182 / 159
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
263
273
283
293
303
313
323
333
343
353
363
373
383
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.