Brisbane Heat v Melbourne RenegadesBH won by 15 runs
BBL · Match 17 · The Gabba (Pace) · T20 ·
Wednesday 30 December 2026, 08:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
317
Most likely band
287–296
Result
173 / 158
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
257
267
277
287
297
307
317
327
337
347
357
367
377
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.