Melbourne Renegades v Sydney SixersMR won by 15 runs
BBL · Match 15 · Melbourne Cricket Ground (Pace) · T20 ·
Saturday 26 December 2026, 08:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
315
Most likely band
285–294
Result
159 / 144
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
255
265
275
285
295
305
315
325
335
345
355
365
375
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.