Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne RenegadesMR won by 6 wickets
BBL · Match 12 · Adelaide Oval (Pace) · T20 ·
Tuesday 22 December 2026, 08:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
319
Most likely band
289–298
Result
160 / 161
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
259
269
279
289
299
309
319
329
339
349
359
369
379
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.