Hobart Hurricanes v Melbourne StarsMS won by 5 wickets
BBL · Match 10 · Blundstone Arena (Pace) · T20 ·
Tuesday 22 December 2026, 08:00
Win probabilitylogistic model
Run total
Expected match total
313
Most likely band
283–292
Result
181 / 182
Run-total distributionnegative-binomial · 10-run bands
253
263
273
283
293
303
313
323
333
343
353
363
373
Probability mass over the combined match total (both innings). Each bar is a 10-run band.